VUI VỚI TUỔI GIÀ ...NGỎ HẸP (PHẦN BA)

[Actov1970]

NHỮNG CÔNG THỨC . Nghe ra thì rất chói tai .Vì trong môn giãi trí mà có công thức hay phương trình như toán học Thì đâu còn goị là môn chơi giaỉ trí và được tiếp cận ngay taị caí goị là “cờ bạc” Thật ra những nhà khai triễn này cũng cố tìm một công thức nào đó khả dỉ có thể chế ngự một phần nào ,cũng như các nhà bào chế cố gắng tìm ra một loaị thuốc đễ tạm chế ngự loaị vi khuẩn tác haị đến nhân loaị không kém. Vì rằng chính quyền đã thật sự công nhận chuyện cờ bạc là một việc hợp pháp và giúp công ăn việc làm cho những người dân cư ngụ gần khu vực mỡ sòng baì. Điều này đã thật sự chứng minh được taị thành phố las Vegas và Atlantic city.Nhưng tac haị cũng không kém khi nạn ma tuý và đĩ điếm gia tăng ơ nơi đây. Gần đây 2003 khi thành phố hiền lành ở trung tâm nước mỹ nơi đây nông nghiệp lá luá mì và bắp đậu là nghề chính. Vậy mà khi thành phố này được chính thức mỡ cữa cho sòng bài hoạt động thì tỉ lệ thất nghiệp và khai phá sãn đả tăng lên gấp bôị. Thành phố đó là Des moines thuộc tiễu bang Iowa. Thậm chí những người dân nơi đây đã cố gắng lai xe về thành phố Kansas city cach đó 150 miles đễ may ra tìm caí vận may mới noí cach khác là may ra “change momentum”. Cũng chính vì vậy mà chính những ngươì nầy cũng muốn tìm ra một công thức mong để cố gắng giúp những ngươì đã lỡ got hook bơỉ caí nghề “ gambling” nầy. Sau đây là những công thức hay là những chiến thuật mà tôi đã sưu tầm được tôi cố gắng viết vào đây đề các bạn tham khaỏ và thấy hợp lý vơí những trò chơi mà một khi bạn có dịp đi vơí bạn bè đến sòng baì….Mặc dầu không chơi nhưng khi vào đó các bạn thử “practice” xem có đúng vơí những formula nầy không?????? ROULETTE MARTINGALE SYSTEM The Martingale System is one of the oldest progression betting systems. Getting straight into it, the Martingale works through double ups. After a loss, your next bet is double your previous bet. You continue doubling until you win. After your win, you go back to the initial bet size. As an example, we can have Bet 1 : $5 - Result : Loss Bet 2 : $10 - Result : Loss Bet 3 : $20 - Result : Loss Bet 4 : $40 - Result : Win Total Win $40 minus Total Loss $35 = Net +$5 profit (Note: Next bet is $5) Notice though that the Martingale System has a profit despite losing 3 out 4 spins. This is the power of the Martingale System, it has changed the requirement for a winning session from having to win more than 50% of the time to having to simply avoiding a long cold streak. That is, you can beat the house even if your only winning 40% or even 20% of the time as long the house doesn't get one crazy long streak. This is the strength and the weakness of the Martingale System. To maximise the success of the Martingale System, you need to try to maximise the number of double ups you can sustain. The more double ups you can cover the longer the Martingale can work. To do this, you should always start your first bet at the table minimum. This gives you the largest number of double ups before hitting the table limit. Next, make sure you are bankrolled properly for the Martingale. You need a minimum of double the table maximum. So if the table maximum is $1000, the best is to have $2000 to fight with. One popular tactic employed by Martingale players is use the hit and run technique. Where you have a set target profit. Once you hit your target, you must leave. This makes it harder for the casino to catch a freak streak. Keep your profit target between 10 - 50 times the minimum bet. Never go for more than 50 times your minimum bet. In principle you can use the Martingale with any staking system to help decide where to place to bet. You can use Baccarat systems like "follow the shoe" or the Avant Denier. The most popular system with Martingale players is to fight the streak. That is, to bet against the previous result. So if the last result was red then your next bet is on black or if the last result was low then your next bet is high. The argument for playing against the streak is that streaks become less and less likely the longer they go. That is, the probability of 3 straight reds is 1 in 8 and the odds of seeing 4 straight reds is 1 in 16 and the odds of seeing 5 straight reds is 1 in 32 etc etc. It is true in that the vast majority of streaks you will ever see will be short ones. Furthering the above argument, some Martingale players modify the system by initially waiting for a streak of 4 or 5 before betting against it. The argument is that streaks of 8 or 9 are very uncommon. If you were limited to 6 double ups and you wait for a streak of 4 to begin before betting against it, then there needs to be a streak of 10 straight wins to break your session bankroll. The odds of seeing streak of 10 straight wins is 1 in 1024! So for example we want to see 4 or 5 reds in a row before betting on black. Reverse-Martingale or Anti-Martingale The Reverse Martingale is the positive version of the system, where after a loss your next bet is the table minimum but after a win you double your bet. So you double your bets after wins instead of losses. The general idea is that your big bets are previous wins but essentially it carries the same bankroll volatility as the regular martingale. The reverse martingale requires as large a bankroll as the regular martingale because it can be quite a long time before you catch a decent streak. In fact, you can go through many sessions without winning the big one. You can see more success by limiting yourself to a certain number of double ups but then you cut yourself from ever exploiting the one crazy streak that may come along. The reverse martingale is a useful approach to playing the financial markets. For a flexible trader, different trading strategies work better at different points in the financial cycle depending on the mood of the market and changes in the fundamentals. The reverse martingale essentially boosts profits when a strategy is successful and automatically decreases them when the strategy is doing badly. That is, the reverse martingale automatically adjusts for changes in the financial market cycle. Basic Probability The probability of an outcome of an event is the ratio of that outcome’s occurrence over an arbitrarily large number of trials of that event. In other words, probability is how often we can expect to see something happen. Probability is the foundation of an analytical approach to gambling. It goes beyond dreams, gut feelings and lucky charms. An understanding of probability is crucial to any gambler’s long term survival. The mathematical formula looks like this:- Where p(x) is the probability of event x, n0 is the number of ways event x is possible and n is the total number of possible events. This is the simple approach to probability and it assumes that outcomes are completely random and that each event is equally likely to occur. This is generally the case for most casino games. We can say that a craps dice is just as likely to come 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6. So in this kind of situation we can make a ratio between each event and the number of events to determine the probability. In the case of the craps dice we have 6 possible outcomes, so we can say that the probability of a 3 coming up is 1 / 6 or about 16.7% . Or we could ask, what is the probability of an even number being rolled. There are 3 ways to make an even number; 2, 4 or 6. There are 6 possible events. So the probability of an even number is 3 (the number of ways to roll even) / 6 (the number of possible outcomes). We can expect to Expected Value Expected value, is the profit or loss you can “expect” from a wager. In the simplest form, expected value is just the summation of losses and wins based on the probability of events. By summing all the wins and losses, you end up with a net position – which is your expected value. So the expected formula looks like something like this: - Where, E(X) is just the expected value of X pi is the probability of event I xi is the value of event I The ∑ simply means sum, therefore to get the correct expected value we need to sum all the probability multiplied by value for all probable events. As an example, we can work out the expected value for a single number $1 bet on an American Roulette table. There 38 possible numbers and we assume each number is equally likely. Therefore, the probability of winning is 1 in 38 and the probability of losing is 37 in 38. When we lose, we lose $1. When we win, we win $35. So our expected value is $-0.0526 or -5.26%. This is also the house edge on an American roulette table. On a European roulette table, the expected value is $-0.027 or -2.7%. So expected value tells us that we should always prefer a European Roulette table over an American Roulette table. In reality, expected value is not always so easy to calculate. The above method assumes perfectly random outcomes. This may not always be the case. For example, we can expect a coin toss game to give heads and tails evenly and work out our expected value accordingly but we may find by observation that heads comes up 3:1 against tails. In this case, the coin may be biased to heads because of some flaw in the coin. Therefore, you should note that the general form of expected value is predictive based on perfect randomness. Where you suspect that this assumption is not true, then it is better to use historical data to estimate expected value. Kelly Criterion The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical approach to bankroll management and growth. It is interesting to players who want to know what the most mathematically efficient percentage of their bankroll they should gamble to maximize their bankroll growth. The Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula: - Where, f* = percentage of player’s bankroll b = the odds being offered on the wager p = the probability of winning q = the probability of losing, i.e. (1 – p) For example, we have a horse race where the bookies are offering 2-to-1 but on some inside information we judge the true odds to be around 3-to-1. Also, our current bankroll is $10,000. So according to the Kelly Criterion:- b = 2-to-1 = 2 p = 3-to-2 = 40% = 0.4 q = (1-p) = 0.6 f* = ( (2 * 0.4) – 0.6 ) / 2 = 0.2 / 2 = 0.1 or 10% So we should put 10% of our bankroll on the horse or $1000 of our $10,000 bankroll. The Kelly Criterion is used by horse and sports gamblers but also by fund managers for stocks and other financial investments. You could even apply it to poker, where often the odds are as if all players have equal chance of winning but the probabilities of each player winning are not equal. The Kelly Criterion is a much more sophisticated approach to bankroll management beyond the ad hoc rules of thumb. Yet, in chasing the fastest long run bankroll growth the Kelly Criterion is quite aggressive. In application there is a real risk in making a mistake in assessing the true odds. To reduce this risk and the inherent volatility of betting so much your bankroll, it is common to bet half of what the Kelly Criterion suggests. This approach sets the Kelly Criterion more as a maximum cap on the betting amount. This makes sense because betting anything over what the Kelly Criterion suggests is counter-productive and will only reduce long run bankroll growth. Never-the-less, if you want to go for maximum bankroll growth, the Kelly Criterion will tell you how much to bet in order to achieve the highest level of long run bankroll growth. The Avant Dernier System The Avant Dernier is a popular Baccarat system, especially with Continental European players. Avant Dernier is french for "before last", which sums up how this simple system works. The Avant Dernier player, bets on the second last winning result. As an example of the Avant Dernier system, if we had a series of results Banker, Player, Player, Banker. Then the bet would be Player. If we had the series Player, Banker, Banker; then our next bet would be Banker. The Avant Dernier hopes to catch a streak of wins on either the Banker or Player. It can also hold up to alternating patterns of player and banker wins. If you can get alot of these patterns then the Avant Dernier system is very profitable. The Avant Dernier system fails when you have 'double chopping'. That is, when wins come in pairs like Banker, Banker, Player, Player, Banker, Banker etc. In practice, you can ignore the Tie bet wins since both player and banker bets are fully returned. The Avant Dernier system is an interesting streaking system without the increasing staking like a reverse martingale. So it is a good baccarat system for smaller bankrolls. Also, while it doesn't guareentee a win every session, it does have a suprisingly high success rate for creating winning sessions, which explains why it remains popular with vetran Baccarat players. Những công thức trên đây nếu không giúp được bạn trong công việc giài trí thì ít nhất bạn cùng có một khaí niệm rằng .Thì ra cũng có rất nhiều ngươì và “NHÂN TAÌ” cố gắng…..Solve Problems….. (Kỳ sau tiếp theo và hết….. Những phương cách chế ngự ….)

[Actov1970]

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